COMMENTARY:

Such news is unlikely to trigger an upbeat media release from the ATC. Perhaps it should. The National Geographic is actually doing us a favour. It's reminding us that Australia, despite its undeniable beauty and friendliness, is not God's gift to the world. If it were, fewer Australians would be clamouring to travel overseas. Growth in domestic tourism would not have been in the doldrums for over 15 years. And Australia's share of the world travel market would be increasing, not declining (according to World Tourism Organisation data).

SPENDING BY INBOUND MARKETS:

-  The main spenders on shopping (for items for use in Australia) are Chinese ($276 per person), Indonesians ($239), and Malaysians ($140). The big spenders on souvenir shopping are Chinese ($612), Japanese ($598) and Thais ($452). 

-  It's not until we look at average spending overall per night that the Japanese assume top position. Japanese spend an average of $309 per night (including accommodation, entertainment, food, etc.), ahead of Americans ($277), Taiwanese ($191), and Hong Kong Chinese ($187).

SHARE OF INBOUND MARKETS BY STATE:

MARKET BRIEFS:

The forum aimed to address "the evolving market scene, the industry challenges and the ATC's new strategies to reignite growth from the Japanese market for the year 2000 and beyond". Greig McAllan explained the ATC's 2000 strategy for Japan. The major points were (1) the ATC's conversion to the idea of celebrity endorsement to promote Australia, (2) the joint campaign with Japan Air Lines ("Welcome back to the market, JAL", session chair Kerry Watson), (3) the continuing focus on the core segment, the experienced female travellers (EFTs - "We've invested heavily in this segment over the years and not going to walk away", said ATC Japan head Greig McAllan), and (4) the campaign for a new target segment, 'New 50s' (typically, a 52-year-old female (they make the decisions), empty nester seeking to enrich herself  with experiential rather than sightseeing activities). 

Earlier, ATC Deputy MD Bill Calderwood presented on the topic "The Trade and Airlines". An interesting choice of title, given that the ATC is neither part of the trade nor an airline. His target was Qantas of course. Having dramatically cut back their Japan services, our once wholly Australian owned national carrier, is being cajoled, urged, and implored to consider bumping up its present 24 services ex-Japan. (ATC has been on Qantas's back about reintroducing services to Korea since the middle of last year,  but that's another story.) The ATC's frustration with Qantas was palpable. Calderwood even commented that the ATC may consider working with Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific to generate more Japanese
visitation to Australia.

Yet his most dramatic line had been saved till the end: "The danger [in reduced capacities] is that the frustration of the Japanese industry may lead them to turn away from the Australian market and increasingly focus on competitive destinations." Such threats by the Japanese tourism executives are not new. And not real, in my view. Many years have passed since the
Japanese wholesalers had the power to turn on and off an established destination. 

[There is also a lot of Japanese hubris involved here. Japanese tourism has generated enormous economic benefits for many countries, destinations and businesses around the world, including Australia. Japanese wholesalers know they are important - and many expect to be treated as such. (You all have stories.) But now Japanese are confronted with a situation in which many Australians are less willing to roll out the red carpet. Qantas has cut
back services dramatically because they make (better) profits elsewhere. Suppliers in Australia, in principally certain hotels and certain hotel management companies, make fewer concessions and more demands. In the meantime, Japanese tourism's contribution to Australian inbound has dropped from 24% in 1993 to 16.5% by the end of 1999.] 

Anyway, who did Qantas throw into this political cauldron to rebut and repulse the blowtorch that was being applied? Ian Collins, Commercial Manager, North Asia was given the short straw. A gentleman who, in the words of one well-known industry executive, has been in the job 'five minutes'. I do not know why no more senior Qantas executives were unable to attend, but for an audience already antipathetic to Qantas, the airline's defence of its activities in Japan left many feeling short-changed. (It should be noted that Qantas was not the only organisation with a conspicuous absence of senior executives attending.)

The panel discussion at the end (of which your humble scribe was a member) generated a few interesting questions from the audience. "If our product is so good, why have we lost market share?" was one. I suggested that our market share over the past decade had stood up fairly well against the traditional competition of Hawaii and Mainland U.S.A.  The 'an-kin-tan' trend of consumers travelling  to cheap destinations close to Japan for
relatively short stays is severely hurting Australia, as it is Hawaii and several European destinations. Having said that, it is also undoubtedly true that the 'gloss' has gone off Australia in recent years. As Greig McAllan indicated, one of the aims of the 2000 campaign in Japan is to put the fun and pizzazz back into Australia as a destination. Good luck, Greig
and the team in Japan. 

Recent Trends
-   Japanese overseas travel in 1999 rose 3.5% on a year earlier to 16,360,000, based on preliminary figures. In contrast, Japanese visitors to Australia was down -5.9% through November. Australia's share of the Japanese market for 1999 (through November) stands at 4.65%, the lowest since 1990 (4.4%). 

-   Asia continues to attract. Recent outbound figures show China +17% (Jan-Aug), Taiwan +13% (Jan-Sept), Korea +12% (Jan-Nov) and Thailand +8% (Jan-Sept). Losers are Guam -2% (calendar 1999) and Hawaii -7% (calendar 1999). The bright note for the Aloha State is the honeymoon market, up 16%. Half the visitors to Hawaii this year have been repeaters. Interestingly, Japanese package tourists have not fallen in 1999. The big delcines have
been recorded by group travellers and FITs.

- Interesting figures released by the ATC at the Sydney Forum. Wholesaler package product now accounts for 50% of all pax to Australia. Of these, 35% are honeymooners, 25 % family, and 20% OLs. Media product (direct mail or through newspaper ads) accounts for 10% (of which over 80% are 40 years of age or over). Group sales now account for 20% of all pax to Australia of which incentives make up 30%, in-company trips 20%, and school excursions 10%. Air only travel accounts for 20% of pax, mostly discount air tickets bought through H.I.S. or Map International. The main purchasers of discount air tickets are OLs (30%), students (20%) and honeymooners (20%). 

-  Special one-off campaigns for 3-6 months are generating more and more business to Australia. Called 'beppam' ('betsu pamphlet') by the trade, these now account for 50% of pax to Australia in the kamiki period (Apr-Sept), according to JTB in Japan! (And 15% in shimoki.) This makes it more important than ever for suppliers and state tourism organisations to
maintain close relationships with the wholesalers and to respond quickly and flexibly when such product is being planned.

-   Are OLs losing interest in overseas travel? This intriguing question was recently posed by Yoko Meguri, a senior executive in Club Med Japan writing in the Japanese-language trade magazine, 'Travel Journal'. Ms Meguri pointed out that the number of females in their twenties, as a proportion of all Japanese travelling overseas, fell from 31.6% in 1996 to 28% in 1998. This was the biggest decline of any major segment for the same period. A recent survey found that unmarried women in their twenties have a monthly disposable income of 80,300 yen (A$1,200). So it's certainly not through a lack of money that young OLs are scaling back their overseas travel adventures. 

Ms Meguri believes young women are seeking a new lifestyle which demands a different use of leisure time. She contrasts the thirty major lifestyle magazines now targetting young women with the sole travel magazine aiming at the same market - Recruit's AB-Road. Entertainment is what today's 'woman' seems to be looking for, ranging from live (music) houses to theatres, museums and sporting clubs. And they can find a lot of what they
want close to home: on their way to the sample the delights of the latest trendy Mexican or French restaurant women stop and admire street theatre performed by South American pipe bands or an American saxophonist; to unwind and pamper themselves, they might head off for a session at the local aesthetic salon; they shop at a mega-record shops for cheap CDs, go to mega-jeans stores for discount casual wear. 'Downturn is fun!', says Meguri.

-  JTB has joined forces with 7-Eleven Japan and seven other major Japanese corporations to establish a multimedia company. The new firm, called '7-Dream DotCom', will place interactive multimedia terminals in 8000 7-Eleven stores around Japan. JTB will offer domestic and overseas tour products (its own brands and those of its competitors), discount overseas air tickets, domestic air tickets, as well as facilitate accommodation bookings. According to a senior JTB executive, the company is considering developing a system that would allow FITs to arrange their overseas trips via such terminals. 

KOREA
-  Korean inbound to Australia is up 67% for January-October period on the back of rising consumer confidence. Spending is up and people are getting their jobs back. Employment prospects have brightened markedly, with the unemployment rate down to 4.4% by the end of 1999 from 7.2% just 12 months ago. However recent unrest on the stockmarket and a weakening won may affect overseas travel plans for 2000.